Transparent by design. Not by accident.
Every signal Arkline produces is driven by quantitative models — not gut calls, not hype, not vibes. Here's the framework behind the intelligence.
BTC Risk Score
The BTC Risk Score measures where Bitcoin's current price sits relative to its long-term fair value. It uses logarithmic regression fitted to BTC's entire price history since the genesis block (January 3, 2009) to establish a fair value curve, then normalizes the deviation into a 0–1 score.
How it works
- 1Fit a regression model to BTC's full daily price history in log space — capturing the long-term growth trajectory.
- 2Compute today's fair value — the model's estimate of where BTC “should” be based on its maturity curve.
- 3Measure the gap — how far the current price has deviated above or below fair value.
- 4Classify risk — the deviation maps to one of six risk categories, from deep value to cycle-top territory.
Risk Categories
Deep value zone. Price well below fair value. Historically the strongest accumulation windows.
Below fair value. Favorable risk/reward for long-term positioning.
Near fair value. No strong directional bias from valuation alone.
Above fair value. Reduce position sizing. Tighten risk management.
Significantly overvalued. Historical distribution zone. Defensive positioning.
Extreme deviation above fair value. Maximum caution. Cycle top territory.
The risk score feeds directly into portfolio allocation decisions. Lower risk levels unlock higher crypto exposure. Elevated and extreme risk levels trigger defensive positioning — shifting toward cash and gold while maintaining minimum durable asset floors.
Daily Positioning Signals
Every day, Arkline evaluates 54+ assets across crypto, equities, commodities, and macro indicators. Each asset receives a trend score based on multiple technical inputs, which determines whether the daily signal is Bullish, Neutral, or Bearish.
What goes into the score
The scoring model is built primarily around moving average positioning — where price sits relative to key trend levels — with secondary inputs for momentum, sentiment, and cycle structure:
Where price sits relative to the 200-day moving average — the single strongest signal of long-term trend health.
Intermediate moving average position confirms whether the trend supports the current bias.
Near-term moving average and crossover dynamics capture immediate strength or weakness.
RSI-based contrarian and overbought/oversold adjustments fine-tune the score at extremes.
A weekly-timeframe support band confirms whether the broader bull or bear market structure is intact.
The system includes structural safeguards — an asset in a clearly broken trend can't be classified as Bullish regardless of other factors. This prevents the model from fighting obvious price structure.
Crypto / Equities Rotation
The Rotation Signal answers one question: should you favor crypto or equities right now? It produces a daily score that leans toward crypto, equities, or stays neutral — based on a weighted blend of performance, sentiment, and macro inputs.
Inputs
How crypto and equities have performed against each other over the trailing period.
Positioning signal state for BTC and SPY — opposing signals amplify the rotation bias.
Fear & Greed dynamics — recovery from fear favors crypto, euphoria signals rotation risk.
USD strength tends to favor equities. Weakness tends to favor crypto.
Rising dominance signals an accumulation phase within crypto.
Elevated volatility triggers defensive positioning across both asset classes.
Favor Crypto
Neutral
Favor Equities
Risk Off
Each regime comes with suggested allocation ranges and actionable guidance — visible directly in the app alongside the score and a daily AI-generated narrative.
Model Portfolios
Three systematic portfolios rebalance daily based on positioning signals, BTC risk level, gold trend, and macro regime. Each one applies the same intelligence with a different risk tolerance — from conservative to aggressive.
Arkline Core
Conservative. Higher base allocation to BTC and ETH. Slower to rotate. Highest minimum floors on durable assets.
Arkline Edge
Moderate. Balanced exposure with gradual position sizing — positions step toward targets over multiple days rather than jumping.
Arkline Alpha
Aggressive. Largest allocation to alt rotation. Fastest position changes. Lowest durable asset floors.
Key Principles
- Durable assets (BTC, Gold) are never fully exited — minimum floors hold regardless of signal state.
- Alt rotation requires dual confirmation across multiple timeframes before capital is deployed.
- Defensive moves (cash, gold) execute immediately. Risk-on moves blend in gradually.
- Every portfolio benchmarks against SPY buy-and-hold for transparent performance comparison.
Fibonacci Trade Signals
Arkline continuously scans crypto assets for trade setups using automated Fibonacci analysis. The system identifies swing structure, computes retracement levels, finds confluence zones, and generates signals only after price confirms a reaction at the level.
How signals are generated
- 1Detect swing structure — identify significant highs and lows across multiple timeframes.
- 2Compute Fibonacci levels — map key retracement ratios between each swing pair.
- 3Find confluence zones — areas where multiple Fibonacci levels from different swings cluster together, increasing significance.
- 4Wait for confirmation — no signal fires until price shows a measurable reaction at the zone (rejection wick, volume spike, or structural hold).
- 5Score and publish — each setup is scored on zone strength, volume, trend alignment, and market regime before reaching users.
Signals include entry zones, targets, stop losses, and a risk/reward assessment. Both swing (multi-hour) and scalp (short-duration) tiers are supported, each with their own confirmation requirements.
Macro Regime Detection
Arkline classifies the current macro environment as Risk-On or Risk-Off by analyzing the health of major equity indices alongside volatility conditions. When the macro picture deteriorates, the system automatically reduces crypto exposure and increases defensive allocations across all model portfolios.
Risk-On
Equities healthy. Full crypto allocation per signal state. Alt rotation active. Offensive positioning.
Risk-Off
Macro weakness detected. Crypto exposure reduced. Defensive assets prioritized. Capital preservation mode.
Built for clarity. Not mystery.
You shouldn't have to trust a black box with your money. Arkline shows you the framework, the inputs, and the logic — so the confidence is yours, not borrowed.